Brown has it in the bag?

My knowledge of, and interest in, Labour politics is pretty limited. As a result I have to struggle to interest myself in the Labour party’s leadership or deputy leadership elections. The problem is that this contest is going to decide who our next Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister are.

In the Gordon Brown versus John McDonnell contest you would have to suspect that Brown has it in the bag. McDonnell is a supporter of a number of left-wing causes, such as widespread nationalisation. On top of that he has troublemaking ‘previous’ as he was deputy to Ken Livingstone when the latter was leader of the Greater London Council in the 1980s. For the Labour party to choose him would be like the Tory party electing Iain Duncan Smith as leader……

Perhaps McDonnell will force Brown to move to the left slightly. Perhaps with John Reid leaving the government Brown will take the opportunity to scrap some of the illiberal measures that have come out of the Home Office of late. Maybe ID cards will be scrapped (with pressure on public spending, surely they would make a sensible cut?), although it says something about how much the Labour party has changed when opposition to ID cards is seen as left wing. But it would be a pure indulgence (and an act of madness) by Labour party activists if they were to elect McDonnell as leader.

Brown is hardly likely to shift the party or the government dramatically. There will probably be a change in emphasis and certainly of style. Yet, no one other than Brown has the chance to deliver the Labour party a fourth election victory. Such a victory will be much more difficult due to the resurgent Conservative party and with signs that Liberal Democrat’s are starting to loose ground – but this was always going to be the case.

Fergusson to run for Presiding Officer

It is good news that Tory MSP Alex Fergusson has decided to run for the post of Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament. Mr Fergusson, who has been a member of the Parliament since it opened in 1999, is well respected across all the parties and combines an amiable personality with the ability to get things done. Elected as a list MSP for the South of Scotland at the first elections to the Parliament in 1999, Mr Fergusson captured the Galloway and Upper Nithsdale constituency from the SNP at the 2003 elections, with a majority of just 99 votes. Last week he managed to buck the SNP trend and increased his majority to a very respectable 3,333 votes.

Given the tight Parliamentary arithmetic there has, of course, been a great reluctance amongst the SNP and Labour parties to put one of their number forward for the post. It could be argued that it is the Tories turn anyway – as the Parliament’s first PO was the Lib Dem Lord Steel, the outgoing George Reid was a Nationalist, and with Labour just one seat behind the SNP it is hardly surprising that they would be happy to see a Tory fill the vacancy. That said, had the circumstances been different, Mr Fergusson would have commanded cross-party support anyway.

There is one question that arises, however. Lord Steel and Mr Reid each served just one term as Presiding Officer before retiring from the Parliament at the subsequent election. Has this now become a Parliamentary convention – one that Mr Fergusson is happy with?

Minority Government

It has been interesting to watch Alex Salmond's attempts to form an administration. The most obvious candidate as a coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, have ruled themselves out (for the moment) of a formal coalition with the SNP. This is perhaps understandable as the Lib Dems have had their first experience in a long time of how it feels to be on the crappy end of election night. Losing three constituencies that they have held since the 1980s would have stung, especially as one of them was lost to the man who is likely to become Scotland's new First Minister.

Yet the door is still open for them to enter a coalition at some point in the near future. Today's announcement that the Greens and SNP have signed a formal 'agreement of co-operation' is obviously helpful to Mr Salmond. However this is far from being a coalition or even the 'confidence and supply' agreement that had been talked about earlier in the week. It does gain the SNP two extra votes in most Parliamentary debates, but it does not guarantee Green support for Finance Bills or in confidence motions.

Why have the Greens been so reluctant to join an SNP administration? Firstly there is a point of political difference - the Greens do not like the SNP's road building proposals. Yet it does also seem as if the Greens are reluctant to go into a government with the SNP without the Liberal Democrats also being involved. Indeed, Robin Harper has said that the Green's would consider a formal agreement should the Lib Dems change their mind.

It is hard to judge before it has even taken office how stable the new Executive is going to be. However, if we have a turbulent couple of years with the SNP unable to pass its legislation it is possible to envisage Alex Salmond inviting the Lib Dems into a coalition. Perhaps after a few years without their ministerial limos the Lib Dems might be more amenable to such an invitation. The question is, would they join with Mr Salmond or could we see Jack McConnell return?

The Long Goodbye

So it's official. Tony Blair is to leave office on 27 June. Television news programmes have already had their first stab at assessing Mr Blair's premiership and the newspapers will have their turn tomorrow. And then, on 27 June, when he finally does go, we will have to endure it all again.

Of all the things to pick up on though, it is the date of his departure that I find interesting. Wednesday 27 June 2007. Why that date? Well, obviously it will take some weeks for the Labour party to go through its procedure to select a new leader, so Blair has to allow sufficient time for that process. Yet, according to one BBC report that I saw earlier, the new leader will be announced on 24 June. That's a Sunday. Now, we all know that Gordon Brown is likely to be the next Labour leader. Mr Brown is a good God fearing man and a son of the manse. But are his Sabbatarian principles such that they won't let him become Prime Minister on a Sunday? Or maybe the Queen just doesn't want him pitching up at the Palace and ruining her Sunday joint.

And why a Wednesday? I suppose its just coincidence that Prime Minister's Questions takes place on a Wednesday. But who is going to be answering them? Are we going to have PMQs with Prime Minister Blair receiving tributes from grieving Labour MPs, while Mr Brown, the new leader of the Labour party, looks on? Or will Blair resign earlier in the morning and allow the new Prime Minister Brown to take the first questions of his premiership, as the former PM takes his place on the backbenches?

I might be just a little cynical, but my guess is that Blair will do whatever makes Brown most uncomfortable.