Friday 11 May 2007

Minority Government

It has been interesting to watch Alex Salmond's attempts to form an administration. The most obvious candidate as a coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, have ruled themselves out (for the moment) of a formal coalition with the SNP. This is perhaps understandable as the Lib Dems have had their first experience in a long time of how it feels to be on the crappy end of election night. Losing three constituencies that they have held since the 1980s would have stung, especially as one of them was lost to the man who is likely to become Scotland's new First Minister.

Yet the door is still open for them to enter a coalition at some point in the near future. Today's announcement that the Greens and SNP have signed a formal 'agreement of co-operation' is obviously helpful to Mr Salmond. However this is far from being a coalition or even the 'confidence and supply' agreement that had been talked about earlier in the week. It does gain the SNP two extra votes in most Parliamentary debates, but it does not guarantee Green support for Finance Bills or in confidence motions.

Why have the Greens been so reluctant to join an SNP administration? Firstly there is a point of political difference - the Greens do not like the SNP's road building proposals. Yet it does also seem as if the Greens are reluctant to go into a government with the SNP without the Liberal Democrats also being involved. Indeed, Robin Harper has said that the Green's would consider a formal agreement should the Lib Dems change their mind.

It is hard to judge before it has even taken office how stable the new Executive is going to be. However, if we have a turbulent couple of years with the SNP unable to pass its legislation it is possible to envisage Alex Salmond inviting the Lib Dems into a coalition. Perhaps after a few years without their ministerial limos the Lib Dems might be more amenable to such an invitation. The question is, would they join with Mr Salmond or could we see Jack McConnell return?

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